Project Evaluation and Economic-Financial Management: An Applied Study in the Metalurgy Industry
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5585/gep.v6i3.371Keywords:
Valuation, Project Management, Risks, Steel Industry.Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate a newly deployed project in Minas Gerais that is engaged in producing inputs for the steel industry, in terms of generation of value to investors. Cash flows were identified, both in explicit projections and in perpetuity, as well as the capital cost of opportunity necessary to discount the future amounts of cash. The estimated cost of capital requires the pricing of the cost of equity, and in this study was used the conditional CAPM. However, as the company has no shares traded on the stock exchange, it was necessary to use the bottom up method with information from companies with similar risks for estimates of leverage beta (systematic risk measurement proxy). The results show that the company can generate positive value in the various scenarios considered, but only the most daring scenario of increased production and sales could result in amounts consistent with the expectations of shareholders upon realization of investments. The other scenarios would imply operational inefficiencies, as it would result in a low occupation of installed capacity. Furthermore, the Value at Risk (VaR) and the expected value of the project were estimated.
References
Assaf, A., Nt. (2012). Finanças corporativas e valor. 6. Ed. São Paulo: Atlas.
Berk, J., Demarzo, P., & Harford, J. (2010). Fundamentos de finanças corporativas. São Paulo: Bookman.
Brasil, H. (2002). Avaliação moderna de investimentos, Rio de Janeiro, Qualimark.
Burton, J. (1998). Revisting the capital asset pricing model, Dow Jones Asset Manager, May/June, p. 20-28.
Comitê de Pronunciamentos Contábeis. Pronunciamento Técnico CPC 27. Ativo imobilizado.
Copeland, T., Koller, T., & Murrin, J. (2012). Avaliação de empresas valuation: calculando e gerenciando o valor das empresas. 3a Ed. São Paulo: Pearson.
Costa, L., Costa, L., & Alvim, M. (2010). Valuation: manual de avaliação e reestruturação econômica de empresas. São Paulo: Atlas.
Da, Z., Guo, R., & Jagannathan, R. (2012). CAPM for estimating the cost of equity capital: interpreting the empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 103(1), 204-220.
Damodaran, A. (2009). Avaliação de investimentos: ferramentas e técnicas para a determinação do valor de qualquer ativo. 2a Ed. Rio de Janeiro: Qualitymark.
Durão, N., & Silva E. (2013). Avaliação de empresas pelo método do fluxo de caixa descontado: estudo de caso na Cia Hering S.A. Gestão Contemporânea. 3(1), 24-39.
Fernandez, P. (2014). CAPM: an absurd model, IESE Business School, University of Navarra, Madrid, mimeo.
French, E., & Fama, K. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-65.
Gonçalves, W., Jr., Rochman, R., Eid, W., Jr., & Chalela, L. R. (2011). Estimando o prêmio de mercado brasileiro. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 15(5), 931-954.
Hamada, R. S. (1971). The effect of the firm's capital structure on the systematic risk of common stocks. Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, p. 435-452.
Khotari, S., Shanken, J., & Sloan, G. (1995). Another look at the cross-section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 1(1), 185-205.
Leão, L., Martins, P., & Locatelli, R. (2012). Gestão de ativos e passivos e controle de riscos: um estudo aplicado ao Banco de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais S/A. Revista de Gestão & Tecnologia, 12(3), 3-25.
Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets, Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13-37.
Locatelli, R., Nasser, J., & Mesquita, J. (2015). Fatores determinantes da estrutura de capital no agronegócio: o caso das empresas brasileiras. Revista Organizações Rurais & Agroindustriais, 17(1), 72-86.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Marquetotti, D. (2014). IPO e o custo de capital: um estudo de caso do setor de serviços de locação de máquinas e equipamentos. Dissertação de Mestrado, Fundação Pedro Leopoldo, Pedro Leopoldo, MG, Brasil.
Martelanc, R., Pasin, R., & Pereira, F. (2010). Avaliação de empresas: um guia para fusões & aquisições e private equity. São Paulo: Pearson Prentice-Hall.
Minayo, M. (2007). O desafio do conhecimento. São Paulo: Hucitec.
Modigliani, F., Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, 48(3), 261-297.
Modigliani, F., Miller, M. H. (1963). The corporate income taxes and the cost of capital: a correction. American Economic Review, 53(3), 433-443.
Póvoa, A. (2012). Valuation: como precificar ações. Rio de Janeiro: Campus.
Rogers, P., & Securato, J. (2009). Estudo comparativo no mercado brasileiro do reward beta approach, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) e modelo 3-Fatores de Fama e French. Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 3(1), 159-179.
Serra, R., & Wickert, M. (2014). Valuation: guia fundamental. São Paulo: Atlas.
Sharpe, W. (1964). Capital asset prices: a theory of capital market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2016 Ronaldo Lamounier Locatelli
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
