Simulação com o método Monte Carlo: Uma ferramenta para análise de risco no gerenciamento de projetos

Lusianny Pereira Herzog; Everson Jonatha Gomes da Silva; Guilherme Jahnecke Weymar

doi:10.5585/gep.v15i3.26721

Authors

Lusianny Pereira Herzog Federal University of Pelotas https://orcid.org/0009-0008-8817-6719
Everson Jonatha Gomes da Silva Federal University of Pampa https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3787-5033
Guilherme Jahnecke Weymar Federal University of Pelotas https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8216-9122

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5585/gep.v15i3.26721

Keywords:

Risk, Monte Carlo, Modeling, Planning, Project management, Project

Abstract

In a competitive environment, organizations constantly seek opportunities for improvement and reassess their business models due to the challenges they face. Consequently, project risk arises from the uncertainty regarding expected outcomes, such as timelines and costs. Risk analysis is a tool in risk management and can be qualitative or quantitative, depending on the available resources. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is a widely used method, especially for risks related to schedule delays and cost overruns. In this context, the present work focuses on a case study of a risk analysis applying MCS in project schedule risk management. The objectives include contextualizing the importance of risk analysis, examining the theoretical basis of the Monte Carlo method, conducting a risk analysis on a project, and developing a risk analysis program in Python. The justification for this study lies in the need to improve the success rate of construction projects, which often exceed deadlines and budgets. Overall, the study contributes to a more effective approach to project management, adapting to the constantly evolving market demands. The results indicate a 5% probability that the project will be completed in 590 days and a 95% probability of completion in 669 days. This information allows stakeholders to better understand how the schedule can be affected by risks and to take measures to mitigate these impacts in advance.

Author Biographies

Lusianny Pereira Herzog, Federal University of Pelotas

Graduated in Production Engineer, master’s in Mathematical Modeling. The research and projects developed are in area of planning and risk management.

Everson Jonatha Gomes da Silva , Federal University of Pampa

Graduated in Mathematics, master's and PhD in Mechanical Engineering. He is currently a Professor at the Federal University of Pampa. The research and projects developed are in the area of transport phenomena.

Guilherme Jahnecke Weymar, Federal University of Pelotas

Graduated in Mathematics, master's and PhD in Mechanical Engineering. He is currently a Professor at the Engineering Center and participates in the PPGMMat at the Federal University of Pelotas. The research and projects developed are in the area of transport phenomena.

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