Simulação de Monte Carlo aplicada à projetos de recertificação de 5 anos em equipamentos de superfície para perfuração de poços de petróleo offshore

Diogo Freitas Rodrigues; Ana Paula Barbosa Sobral

doi:10.5585/gep.v14i1.23452

Authors

Diogo Freitas Rodrigues Universidade Federal Fluminense – UFF. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5929-2341
Ana Paula Barbosa Sobral Universidade Federal Fluminense – UFF. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9214-7605

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5585/gep.v14i1.23452

Keywords:

Oil and gas, Drilling, Project management, Risks, Schedule, Critical path, PERT, Simulation, Monte Carlo

Abstract

Several project management tools may be applied in oil and gas industry. The PERT tool, also known as estimate of three points, uses specialists’ info to calculate the duration of project schedule tasks, taking into consideration optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic scenarios, all of them related to project’s risks and uncertainty. Monte Carlo Simulation tool proposes a random numbers sampling process, applied throughout project critical path, to predict finishing probabilities within specific dates. This article aims to employ the Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for schedule management, based on risk analysis, applied to five-year recertification projects in surface equipment for drilling offshore oil wells. Therefore, using a combination of PERT and Monte Carlo Simulation tools, combine to other project management concepts, it was possible to perform a probability analysis and obtain a prediction of the project finish scenario, based on its risks and uncertainty analyzed. The results have shown the project original schedule had low chances of finishing within time stablished and so, the simulation performed contributes for the initial schedule revision and improvement.

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