Risk analysis in engineering projects: using PERT/CPM with simulations

Abstract

PERT/CPM is a tool used in project management that allows the planning, scheduling, and coordination of activities for controlling time and cost. Monte Carlo simulation is a process based on samples of random numbers that assists in decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. This study aims to analyze the restrictions in the construction sector, such as financial budgets and time. Through this analysis, the critical path is determined by the PERT/CPM tool, allowing the acceleration of project activities without exceeding the initial investment. The Monte Carlo simulation allowed carrying out a probabilistic analysis to quantify the inherent sensitivity in project completion and to have a more realistic view of future scenarios. The study was carried out at a construction company that furnished the data for its analysis and application.